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I've got no issues with being banned. TMP is a privately run site and can choose who can have access to the "service" and who can't. I was a free user and really don't have any rights to access. The degree to which these decisions are good business practice is another matter but the proprietor both makes those decisions and deals with the ramifications.
Against my better judgement, I hopped onto the site to see what was driving the new traffic and was was not surprised to see there is yet another flame war. This one was a bit different as it wasn't with a competing forum or subgroup of TMP users but with an Advertiser in the form of Richard Clarke owner of the TooFatLardies rules publishing company. TMP's revenue model is add driven and getting into a public snit with an advertiser seems to be really, really silly. I suspect Mr Clarke has also learned the lesson about wrestling with a pig in his pen. You just get muddy and the pig kind of likes it.
For fun, I looked up TMP's traffic stats - I use a number of paid tools for investment purposes but even TMP's self reported stats tell a pretty damning. Lets just look at those self-reported stats:
Hits. Avg Daily Visitors
2Q'17: 24.7MM. 4Q'17 8.9k/day
2Q'20: 15.0MM. Current. 6.6k/day
Wow - that's a 40% decline over three years. To honest the decline is even worse once traffic for 'bots are separated out but an ominous trend when overall online traffic metrics are skyrocketing. Theres a similar trend in terms of average daily visitors which has declined for just over 8.9k/day in 2017 to a current level of 6.6k/day.
While it is tempting to just continue to beat up TMP and they sure make it easy to do so, similar sites like the Lead Adventures Forum are also seeing traffic declines - not nearly as large but still steadily down.
The tabletop industry as a whole has never been better - so why are these general purpose sites seeing a decline in both traffic and business relevance?
In my opinion, there are several factors at play from both a consumer and business perspective. Now just because I say it doesn't mean its accurate and your milage may vary.
Consumers:
Like or hate Facebook, general purpose platform like it are winning the consumer eyeball wars because they work and provide a single user interface to use. Special purpose forums like TMP have their own unique infrastructure and interface (I never really figured how to post pictures on TMP) and that creates a form of user "friction" and a tech backlog as they just dont have the resources to keep pace with the competition. Both facebook and Youtube have a simple interface that once you learn it it works for every site / group / topic your interested in. One of my main uses for TMP was reference material on uniforms and other historical minutia - now there are innumerable Facebook groups on the same topics with integrated images and a simple user interface. Other than watching the spectacle of people squabbling over how HMGS should run a convention, I really have no effective use for TMP.
Business:
The internet has made it even easier for a business to interact directly with its customers on a global basis. A small manufacture of historical figures used to have to market through physical game conventions (the vendor booth) or sites like TMP or magazines to announce and sell products. Now they can reach out directly or use very sophisticated marketing tools to target their audience. Throw on top of that the evolution of platforms like "KickStarter" which effectively perform a combination market test and trade finance platform and the need for an intermediary site really needs to be questioned.
In real life, I'm a very active tech investor and have observed these trends impacting a number of industries. I am intrigued by the impact and implications these forces will have on the historical gaming industry and will be doing some more research on the topic. The downside of that for you is there will be a few more really boring "business trend" posts on the blog.
Back to TMP - I fear the site and, others like it, are condemned to a continual downward slide in relevance and economic viability., with the only variation being the slope of the decline. Like large format department stores, their value in the delivery chain has been supplanted by superior technology. I suspect the questionable decisions of TMP's owner will hasten it's demise but that's just speeding up the inevitable.
16 comments:
An interesting read I left TMP as a paying manufacturer quite some time ago and got grief for doing so, so I'm not surprised at the decline just surprised it's not more.
I think the gradual decline in general sites is exactly like you say there are far more user friendly alternatives I ended up creating a Facebook page for my business - far more user friendly, far more intereaction with followers (many aren't customers unfortunately) but it works in what it's supposed to do.
People I think generally pick up on a topic, manufacturer, rules set etc and migrate to systems like Facebook - I think even magazines struggle unless it's a house magazine like WD.
The hard part is keeping pace with everything - sometimes a group like the LAF feels quite cozy 😀
Oh bother that means I'm going to need a Facebook account, which is something I've resisted for most of this millennium, partially work driven but mostly because I'm an anti-social bod at heart. 😥
This flame war seemed a bit strange as one business was repeatedly harrassing other businesses (per those owners) to stop advertising on TMP via email and recruiting their customers to follow suit. Usually it's posts on the forum between users, followed by bans followed my voluntary departures and less overall activity. TMP certainly isn't as interesting as it used to be.
FB has it's own ongoing debacle on what to delete and who to ban - not that our hobby related gaming forums are likely to be a big issue there.
What I like about LAF as opposed to FB is it's broader reach. Joining and monitoring dozens of FB groups is not as easy, and takes more work in my opinion to filter out the chaff . On a forum like LAF, an all unread query or replies query is a single click for all sub forums.
Syrinx0
I agree that a specialized forum like LAF is a much better targeting environment for a miniatures related business and I really like the forum
It’s still seeing declining traffic (at a much slower pace than tmp) but the negative trend is their. Thanks for the comment
I'm inclined to ask questions like... how many of the declining hits are simply un-invested visits by those who contribute little to the forums? Or does the loss of those hits, impact the revenue of advertisers?
But I'd be reaching. Technology marches on, and things change at an ever increasing rate.
Still, if the death of the Gaming forum is in my future, I look forward to the a replacement that offers greater utility than Facebook, and the other social media constructs that are presently in use. Facebook is easy to access, but I find that its utility, or the return that it offers is roughly equal to the effort invested in accessing it.
This is a very interesting post. I appreciate you sharing your thoughts and observations on the subject.
Irishserb: I agree that general purpose platforms don’t offer all the functionality that a special purpose one like TMP or LAF can offer. I find it easier to search “1809 French Dragoon Uniforms” on TMP than within a facebook group currently. What the general purpose platforms to do offer is a much easier interface (for most) and a wide variety of services - like messaging / calls etc. Our club uses a private facebook group to organize all of our efforts including the little wars TV channel production. It works well for us but we have adapted our practices to fit the platforms capabilities.
I’m am sure a lot of the attrition from the TMP’s of the world are limited scale users - I was an infrequent poster so my ban has no real negative impact. The longer term issue is a funnel management one. All hardcore users started out as newbies and over time learned to use and value the tmp structure or they attrition away. If both the rate of sign-up decreases and attrition increases the rate at which new “high value” users that are created is materially diminished which does not bode well for the future of special purpose forum (and blogs)
I see the same grand in the age data from WSS’s great wargaming survey - there is an age bubble moving through the hobby with the average historical gamers age steadily increasiing as new comers at the top of the age funnel dimish.
Sadly, it’s always easier to point out problems than think of solutions so future posts will posit some solution - I look forward to your thoughts - especially if you have a different opinion than mine - I have no monopoly of the right answer!
I have to I agree with pretty much everything that others have said. I joined FB just last year, specifically to follow a local group that only organises games through FB.
FB seems like a lot of flash advertising- a user posts a pic or link and then it sort of disappears only to reappear through some sort of sorcery days later for no apparent reason. To actually document your work or follow the work of others I prefer blogs and forums.
Really great post and very insightful
I look forward to more of these businessey posts, very interesting. FWIW my sole use of FB was due the fact that my hockey league organises itself entirely through the platform. Otherwise I wouldn't be on it at all. It's the only stuff I access. Regardless.
I'm a longtime FB user which makes me a longtime sufferer as well. It has its uses, but it also has a long list of problems. For me these come down to two things; intrusive advertising and intrusive politics! I'd much rather be on a dedicated gaming site, but it is what it is and we (users) have to put up with the many negatives if we want to access the many benefits.
Great article by the way. I've got no problem with you bringing your business head into the conversation (and on your blog) because you're giving us a unique and intelligent point of view.
Lee
Always great to hear from you. I think the politics things creeps (maybe slithers) Into a lot of online forums and blogs. The only place that seems to be consistently free of it is the lead adventures forum or some Facebook groups that are very actively moderated. Politics has crept into some of my own blog post given my utter disdain for the current administration but at least I don’t hound people with other views.
I look forward to gettin back to he UK, but suspect that will not be my time soon.
In thinking about this more, I guess this movement away from forums is just another example of an evolution of the hobby to a larger, more 50th percentile player base, where less investment for greater return seems to drive the direction of the hobby.
There has been a tremendous amount of change in the hobby over my 40 years of involvement, and much of that change has expanded accessibility to the hobby, and reduced the investment by the average gamer in the hobby. I'm referring to investment in terms of work and passion. The internet and "canned games", have changed how gamers (on average) pursue the hobby. The teens and 20-somethings at the local shop don't put in nearly as much work and effort as my old group did in 40 years ago. On average, they embrace the games more casually, than we did all of those years ago.
Canned games direct new gamers, directing their perceptions and expectations, feeding them with all that they need to get the game to the table. The internet puts research information, hobby materials, miniatures, and players in their lap, readily. And the web mechanisms that are used to do this get simpler and more mainstream. Personal websites gave way to blogs, blogs to Instagram and Pinterest, and forums to Facebook. Remember Newsgroups? I work with a generation that sees e-mailing as being too klunky and too much work. They find "better" tools for "thier" needs.
After thinking about this a little more, I see the Facebook/forum thing as just another step in the continual process of an ongoing evolution, where investment is less, and perceived return is more, in an ever broadening community, where direction (and thus, accessibility) is happily received by most.
I don't mean any of this to be belittling or insulting. It is just change. I suspect that some number of forums will remain for quite some time, just as some hobby websites persist. There are probably enough of us dinosaurs that find the utility of the forums to be the right tool for our needs. But, the mainstream will be more readily directed, and more concerned with the "enjoyment" to work ratio, as the work is not enjoyment to all. Some forums will go away, other mechanisms will probably replace them and eventually replace at least some of the reliance on Facebook.
Sorry for being so long-winded.
Irish:
I completely agree with you on the level of effort. I think it’s not limited to miniatures but just about any endeavor where craft skills are involved - why cook when it can be delivered etc, etc. I don’t think its a bad thing as the interested population grows materially.
I do think it’s hard on manufactures as consumer interest ebbs and flows. I really like X-wing, bought my box set played a few times and moved on. My 15mm Napoleonics are pushing past 5K figures and I’ll always be interested in them, maybe because of all the effort I’ve put into collecting and painting the little bastards!
I've been avoiding the site since 2011...
http://quindiastudios.blogspot.com/2011/04/goodbye-tmp.html
The only time I end up on there is when someone contacts me about some kind of dust up over our rules or models...
I have been getting quite a few hits on my own "Banned from TMP" post as well lately. I ran into a FB dust up between Flags of War, who quit TMP after TFL, and Armintrout recently. He has his own FB group apparently and for some reason I was getting notifications on my feed. I wasn't following the page so I was at a loss to why. Then he began attacking posts on Flags of war FB page that I do follow. I had to block him.
You know Miles, it was your post that directed me to those two threads where he was baiting people with his Anglophobic ranting. I was quickly removed for disagreeing with his irrational arguments. I really haven't missed it a bit and had pretty much forgotten TMP until it intruded upon my hobby page FB surfing.
Luckily my FB feed hasn't been infected with TMP crap. I periodically get a wave of hits from TMP after good ole' Tango reposts something from my blog. I think it's a nice complement when he does repost something so appreciate his efforts.
TMP as a info source is non-existant for me - there are just too many better places to look. TMP as the occasional "car-crash" rubber necking opportunity is sadly to good to pass up - in small doses! I really enjoy your "A Miniatures Hobby Room" blog and wish I had just 1/4 of your modeling skills
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